Startup Survival Rate Calculator
Your probability of reaching Year 1, 3, 5, and 10, based on real BLS cohort data for your sector.
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business Employment Dynamics · 1994–2024 · last verified 2026-08-29
How this is calculated
Baseline survival rates come directly from US Bureau of Labor Statistics Business Employment Dynamics data — actual cohort tracking of real establishments by sector, not a survey. Your profile (funding status, business model, product-market fit, and paying customers) adds or subtracts percentage points from that baseline, capped at ±20 points total, to produce an adjusted estimate.
If you've already been operating for some years, conditional survival reframes the question: instead of "what fraction of all new businesses reach year 5," it asks "of businesses that made it to your current age, what fraction go on to reach year 5" — a meaningfully more encouraging (and more relevant) number. For a cash-runway view rather than a survival-probability view, see the Startup Runway calculator.
Frequently asked questions
- What is the data source?
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics Business Employment Dynamics (BED), which tracks actual establishment births and deaths every quarter — real cohort data, not a survey or self-reported estimate.
- What does "survival" mean?
- Still operating as a legal business entity. It does not distinguish between a thriving business and one barely hanging on — just whether it still exists.
- Why does healthcare have the highest survival rate?
- It is a regulated, high-barrier-to-entry industry with steady, inelastic demand. Harder to start, but more stable once established.
- Why does information/tech have lower survival?
- The data reflects a genuinely higher failure rate for startups relative to incumbents in this sector, and it is also more exposed to rapid category-level market shifts.
- What modifiers improve my odds the most?
- Paying customers, product-market fit, and institutional funding are the three strongest positive modifiers in this model.
- What is conditional survival?
- If you have already operated for 3 years, the more useful question is "of companies that made it to year 3, how many reach year 5?" — a meaningfully better number than the raw year-5 rate for a brand-new business.
- How accurate is this?
- It is a statistical estimate based on aggregate sector data, not a prediction for any individual company. Use it to understand sector norms and how your situation compares — not as a guarantee.
- Can I use this in my own app?
- Yes — every calculator on Stupidly Clever has a matching REST API and MCP tool that runs the same underlying logic.