Survival Probability Calculator
Calculate the probability that a person of a given age and sex is still alive at a future age, using actuarial life tables.
Example: A 40-year-old US male has roughly an 82% probability of surviving to age 75, and about a 46% probability of reaching age 90, according to current Social Security Administration actuarial tables — figures that shift for smokers or for those with a family history of specific conditions.
Based on US Social Security Administration Period Life Table data (periodically updated).
Source: WHO Global Health Observatory abridged life tables (lx) · 2021 — WHO's 19 age groups, interpolated to single years · last verified 2026-09-12
How this is calculated
WHO's published life table for the country and sex gives the number of survivors at each age. Your survival probability is the ratio of survivors at your target age to survivors at your current age; expected remaining years sums the table forward from your current age. WHO publishes 19 age groups, so single years between them are interpolated at a constant force of mortality.
This same mortality-curve methodology underpins the Longevity Estimator, which layers lifestyle adjustments (exercise, smoking, diet, and more) on top of the baseline country/sex curve used here. To see how your current age compares to the rest of your country's population rather than project forward to a future age, see the National Age Percentile calculator.
Frequently asked questions
- What is "expected remaining years"?
- The average number of additional years someone at your current age is expected to live, based on the country and sex's modelled survival curve — not a prediction for any one individual.
- How is the survival probability calculated?
- As the ratio of survivors at your target age to survivors at your current age, taken from the WHO life table for that country and sex.
- Is the "improving/declining" note based on real historical data?
- It's a general statement about known recent trends (e.g. the well-documented US life-expectancy stagnation from the opioid crisis and COVID-era mortality), not a computed decade-over-decade figure from this calculator's own data.
- What does survival probability mean?
- Survival probability is the estimated likelihood that someone at your current age will still be alive at a specified target age, based on population-level mortality patterns for their country and sex — it is a statistical estimate, not a prediction for any specific individual.
- What data source is used for the life tables?
- The WHO Global Health Observatory abridged life tables, which publish survivors at age x (lx) for each country and sex. WHO publishes 19 age groups; values between them are interpolated at a constant force of mortality, and ages above 85 are extrapolated from WHO's published life expectancy at 85.
- How does survival probability change with age?
- Survival probability to any fixed target age generally increases the closer your current age already is to that target, simply because there is less remaining time during which mortality risk could apply — someone who is already 75 has a higher probability of reaching 80 than someone who is 30.
- What is the difference between life expectancy and survival probability?
- Life expectancy is a single average number — the expected remaining years for someone at a given age. Survival probability is the chance of reaching a specific target age, which is a different (though related) statistic — two populations can have the same life expectancy but different survival probabilities to a specific age if their mortality is distributed differently across the lifespan.
- How do sex and country affect survival probability?
- Women have higher life expectancy than men in nearly every country, which raises their survival probability to any given target age. Country matters enormously too — differences in healthcare access, disease burden, and other factors mean the same current age can carry very different survival probabilities depending on where someone lives.