Business Survival Rate Explorer
Real BLS Business Employment Dynamics (BED) data — establishment survival rates by industry sector and opening-year cohort, 1994–2024. Roughly 80% of businesses survive their first year; only about half reach year five. Use the filters to see how survival varies by sector and the cohort chart to track how each opening-year group fared over time.
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business Employment Dynamics · 1994–2024 · last verified 2026-08-29
About the BLS Business Employment Dynamics data
The Bureau of Labor Statistics Business Employment Dynamics (BED) programme tracks establishment births and deaths every quarter across the US economy. For each annual opening cohort — all businesses that started in a given year — BED measures what fraction were still operating at year 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. This explorer covers cohorts from 1994 to 2024 across 19 two-digit NAICS industry sectors, refreshed annually each November via an automated GitHub Actions workflow. Source: bls.gov/bdm.
What the data shows: Survival rates vary significantly by sector. Finance and insurance establishments historically survive at higher rates than construction or hospitality. Year 1 attrition — the drop from 100% to ~80% — reflects businesses that close within their first twelve months. The steepest decline typically occurs between year 1 and year 3, after which surviving businesses tend to be more stable. Use the sector filter to compare your industry against the all-sector average.
How this differs from "failure rate" statistics: BED survival counts establishments that are still operating as legal entities. It does not distinguish between a thriving business and one barely operating — only whether the entity still exists. Some widely-cited "90% fail in year one" figures use much broader definitions and cannot be sourced to official data; the BLS BED figures here are the most authoritative US government measure of establishment survival.
Recent cohorts (typically the last 1–4 years) will show dashes for some survival intervals because BLS has not yet published data for those windows — a dash means the data does not exist yet, not that survival was zero. To get a personalised survival estimate adjusted for your funding status, business model, and traction signals, use the Startup Survival Rate Calculator.
Frequently asked questions
- What does "survival" mean in BLS BED data?
- An establishment is counted as surviving if it is still operating as a legal business entity at the measured interval. It does not distinguish between a growing business and one barely operating — only whether the entity still exists.
- Why do some cells show a dash (—)?
- Recent cohorts (2021–2024) lack a full 5-year window — BLS has not yet published survival data for those intervals. A dash means the data does not exist yet, not that survival was zero.
- What is a cohort year?
- The year a group of establishments opened. A 2015 cohort tracks all businesses that started in 2015, measuring what fraction were still operating at year 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5.
- How does this differ from the Startup Survival Rate Calculator?
- This page shows raw BLS BED cohort data by sector and year. The Startup Survival Rate Calculator takes that baseline and adjusts it for funding, business model, and traction signals to give a personalised probability for your specific startup.
- Can I download this data?
- Yes — use the CSV download button to export the currently filtered data. The full dataset (all 19 sectors, all cohort years) is also available via the REST API.
- Can I use this in my own app?
- Yes — every calculator on Stupidly Clever has a matching REST API and MCP tool that runs the same underlying logic.
- What is the "90% of startups fail" statistic actually based on?
- The widely-cited figure is not sourced to any single official study and typically conflates different definitions of "failure" (dissolution, acquisition, pivot, dormancy). The BLS BED data here is the most authoritative US government source: it shows roughly 50% of establishments still operating at year 5 — which, read the other way, means about 50% have closed, not 90%.
- Which US industries have the highest five-year survival rates?
- Historically, finance and insurance, healthcare, and government-adjacent sectors (utilities, public administration) show the highest five-year survival rates in BLS BED data. Accommodation, food services, construction, and retail tend to have the lowest — reflecting high competition, thin margins, and seasonality. Use the sector filter to compare directly.
- How do I read the survival curve chart?
- The Y axis shows the percentage of establishments from a given opening cohort that are still operating. The X axis is time after opening (Year 1 through Year 5). Each thin blue line is one cohort year; the bold coloured line is the average. A steep drop between Year 1 and Year 2 means many businesses in that sector close in their second year; a flatter curve means survival is more consistent. Select a specific sector from the filter to see its historical pattern.
- How does year-one survival vary by economic conditions?
- BED data from the 2008–2010 cohorts shows lower first-year survival than neighbouring years, reflecting the financial crisis. The 2020 cohort is an outlier in the other direction — government stimulus and the PPP loan programme appear to have kept many establishments alive that might otherwise have closed, temporarily raising survival rates. Selecting individual cohort years in the filter lets you see these variations directly.
- Who uses BLS BED data and for what?
- Economists, investors, and policy researchers use it to benchmark startup ecosystems and sector health. Venture investors use sector survival curves to calibrate portfolio risk. Entrepreneurs compare their sector's baseline against personalised estimates from the Startup Survival Rate Calculator. Academic researchers cite BED as the authoritative US establishment-level dataset because it covers nearly all private-sector employers, not just venture-backed or incorporated companies.