US Treasury Yield Curve
Live US Treasury yields across 9 maturities, with yield curve inversion detection.
How the yield curve is used
The yield curve plots US Treasury yields from 3 months to 30 years. Under normal conditions it slopes upward — investors demand more yield to lock up money for longer. When short-term yields exceed long-term yields, the curve is "inverted," which has historically preceded every US recession by several months to over a year.
The risk-free rate from this tool feeds directly into the Black-Scholes Options Pricer and CAPM Calculator. The 10-year yield is also used as the benchmark rate in the Safe Withdrawal Rate Calculator. For the equity risk premium implied by the current yield, see the Market Risk Premium Calculator.
Frequently asked questions
- What is a yield curve?
- A yield curve plots the interest yields of bonds with equal credit quality but different maturities — here, US Treasuries from 3 months to 30 years. It shows what the market currently expects to earn for lending to the government over different time horizons.
- What does inversion mean?
- A normal yield curve slopes upward — longer maturities pay more to compensate for locking up money longer. An inverted curve is the opposite: short-term yields exceed long-term yields, which typically signals the market expects the central bank to cut rates in response to a slowing economy.
- Why does 3M vs 10Y matter?
- The 3-month vs 10-year spread is the New York Fed's preferred recession indicator — every US recession since the 1960s was preceded by this spread turning negative. The 2-year vs 10-year spread is a second, more widely-cited signal that often inverts earlier.
- How often is this updated?
- Data is sourced live from FRED and cached for 24 hours, so it reflects the most recent daily close rather than a live intraday quote.
- Can I use this in my own app?
- Yes — every calculator on Stupidly Clever has a matching REST API and MCP tool that runs the same underlying logic.